All posts by Carina

Data cleaning

Data is at the core of our business at ConWx, and we know that the quality of input data is reflected in the accuracy of our forecasts. That is why cleaning data is the first step to ensure we have the best input data for training our models. Data cleaning helps us diagnose issues such as outliers, missing values, and noisy data, which all affect data quality.

Some estimate that data scientists spend 80% of their time cleaning and manipulating data, and less than 20% analysing it. In our experience, the ratio is not that dire, but truth be told, data cleaning is a big part of our work at ConWx.

Taking the amount of time used on cleaning data, we have made a few guidelines on, how to make data cleaning as smooth and easy as possible.

Advice on data cleaning from our data scientists

Use the tool that makes sense. It’s essential to have a wide range of tools available as there is no one-tool-fix-all. Whether it’s Python or Excel, there are pros and cons for each tool for the task at hand. Before deciding on the tool, ask yourself, how fast does it need to be done, can the logical pattern for cleaning the data be easily implemented in the tool, is it a recurring task, what is the tool you are most comfortable with. You will likely end up using different tools for different steps in the cleaning of data.

Correct data if you have enough information. Use all available features to make the most out of the dataset. Say you have a power production time series for a wind park where the maximum production changes over time. If you also have the turbine availability and potential curtailment, you can use that to scale the power to 100% availability, and use the scaled data to train your models.

Less is more. Sometimes you are better off eliminating data that deviates from the standard or simply looks odd. Having said that, be sure not to eliminate too much noise from the data as this might end up mispresenting the true nature of your data.

Communicate with the source. Do not be afraid to contact the source of the data and ask for more information. It can save you from making wrong assumptions or simply discarding good data.

Good luck cleaning your data!

Well, an accurate weather forecast is the first step to generate a good power production forecast. To have the most precise weather forecast, several weather models (NWP), are often used in a combination as one forecast calculation model might work best at high temperatures, while another in a certain region when winds are strong. The country and region determine the combination of models. Let us take Scotland for instance that has a complex terrain. The model mix here, are most likely different from the models used, to determine power generation for a power plant located in a flat terrain, in Denmark. So, weather models and the combination of models are important for precise prediction.

Yet, other elements are also of significance. Measurement data, location data and generation capacity from the power plant is an important component to predict future power generation in a given area. Here, the accuracy of the (historical) production data determine the precision of the power production forecasts. Information on data resolution, plant availability and potential curtailment also contributes to increase the forecast accuracy. Not to mention, metadata from individual turbines, which help determine any differences in power production on individual turbines, which again affect the entire power plant production.

So, data amount and accuracy, provide the basis to generate a good power production forecast!

Interested in knowing, how we will predict power generation for your power plant? Then, contact us for more information or read more about our power production forecasts here 

China continues to lead the global wind energy market. In 2016, more than 23 GW of wind power were installed and with the increasing number of offshore wind projects on the agenda in the East China Sea, we now offer our clients operating in these areas, a full metocean forecasting system.

ConWx Metocean Forecasts for East China Sea uses market’s best and most accurate weather models. The system provides detailed data for all metocean parameters, so you can you can plan and operate you offshore project, confidently and safely.

Read more about ConWx Metocean Forecasts right here or contact us for more information.

Winter is here and the season of high wind production. Is your wind park at peak conditions and ready for it? Want to know the best time for service and maintenance to benefit from high wind production? The solution is a solid O&M system! This is especially needed for today’s large wind farms where production rates can differ up to 100% within a park. These production differences are mainly caused by shadow and wake effects. Shadow effects are highest in wind speeds between 6 and 12 m/s with significant production differences on the front and end rows in the farm. ConWx offers a full O&M system that forecasts production for the individual turbine and/or sectors in the park. In that way, you will know which turbines are most suited for maintenance and avoid those with highest production on that specific day.  Any wake or lee effect due to wind direction and atmospheric stability related changes are recognised and forecasted. Like seasonal changes such as sea breezes are adapted into the systems’ knowledge and algorithms.

With ConWx O&M system you get:

  • Production forecasts on turbine and sector level.
  • Forecasts on wake and shadow effect
  • Up to 8 daily updates
  • Forecasts 156 hours in advance
  • 99.7% system uptime
  • Web site presentation
  • 24/7 customised service

 

Contact us for more information using the form below:

Contact Us

With experience from countless wind power projects all over the world, ConWx has the data you need to carry out successful wind site assessments. ConWx Hindcast Data has proven best in test several times and we compare our data towards actuals on a regular basis, to ensure our customers are provided with the most accurate data. Our hindcast data can be acquired for single points, entire grids, covering entire Europe, USA, India, China, Taiwan and Japan. Likewise, we can provide data in different resolutions and time series lengths, all tailored to your specific needs and requirements.

Talk to us today and let us help optimize your wind site assessment job.

Contact us for more information or request a data sample using the form below

Contact Us

 

At ConWx, we have recently carried out a new comprehensive metocean study of the Arabian Gulf, based on hindcast of a continuous 30 year period (1986-2015) and 200+ storm events.

The hindcast data are ConWx mesoscale-modeled data generated from historical global analysis field models. The models used are the IRIE weather model, Wavewatch III, version 3.14 wave model and GETM current model. All models have been re-calculated 30 years back with a spatial resolution of 3-10km using boundary input from the global model ERA/ECMWF.

The Weather and Wave Models are based on complex physical equations of fluid dynamics and thermodynamics and use current weather conditions as first input to mathematical computer programs.

ConWx Arabian Gulf MetOcean Hindcast utilizes hindcast models of higher resolution and more powerful physics than the previous studies for the Gulf region (e.g. PERGOS). In contrast to existing climate data for the Arabian Gulf, ConWx hindcasts are of most recent date and for a longer continuous period.

ConWx Arabian Gulf MetOcean Hindcast Deliverables include:

  • Extreme values for wind speed, wave height, water level and ocean currents
  • Hindcast data expressed with annual, monthly and hourly frequency in tables
  • Time series of weather, waves and ocean currents for +200 storm events for the 30 year period 1986-2015.

If you want more information, please use the contact form below:

Contact Us

We have the honour of speaking at WindEnergy Hamburg about climate change and the significance of hindcast lengths for reliable energy yield analysis. Do not miss this great opportunity to get valuable weather insight for profitable wind farm projects.

The presentation will take place at Speakers’ Corner on Tuesday 27th of September from 16.45 till 16.55 in the foyer linking Halls B1 and B2.

We look forward to see you there.

 

 

How can you spot energy market trends and movements?
Do you have the necessary expertise available in-house?

Be ahead of your competition with professional long term renewables forecast analysis!

ConWx is all about real measured data. Statistics do not lie but wrong data analysis can have dramatic consequences on energy prices and your trading decisions.

Let ConWx’ highly experienced specialists digest long term forecast data for you, so that you can spend more time on your core activities.

With ConWx Long Term Renewables Forecasts, we believe that we can help you:

  • Plan better
  • Work faster
  • And trade smarter

With ConWx Long Term Renewables Forecasts you get:

  • Weekly reports with deep insight of relevant parameters influencing the energy market
  • Weather maps
  • Short, mid- and long term energy outlook
  • Forecasts on wind power production, hydro power production and changes in temperature
  • Uncertainty analyses
  • Brief overview of the energy market(s) of interest

Contact us already today and find out more – but hurry! The first 10 customers will get ConWx Long Term Rnewables Forecast for Germany for free of charge for 1 month.

Contact Us

 

At ConWx, we understand the importance of a highly accurate power forecast for our customers and their businesses. We are continuously looking for ways to develop our forecasts in order to provide the best quality at all times. Our most recent quality improvement to ConWx wind power forecasting system, has been achieved using a new model combination approach. As a result, we have been able to increase forecast performance with a bias improvement of 67%. By lowering bias between the forecast and the production data, our customers will have a better basis for planning production, balancing and trading smarter.

Interested in knowing more about our wind power forecasts, read more here:

Power Forecast Services