Uncertainty Flagging

With the rise in renewable installations and volatility in power prices, accurate power forecasts have become more crucial than ever.

It’s widely recognised that production forecasts rely heavily on weather model data. These models are surprisingly accurate for short-term forecasts. However, there are limitations to how detailed these advanced models can be, and very small-scale events are not perfectly modelled.

To address these challenges, we combine multiple weather models including our in-house models. It is well known that one of the best global models is the ECMWF, which the energy market closely relies on. Any errors or large changes in this model can lead to high volatility, affecting the energy market.

To mitigate risks, we developed Uncertainty Flagging Power Forecasts. This feature alerts our clients when there is a high risk of deviations in the primary model and indicates possible up or down-regulation of the power forecasts.

To illustrate uncertainty flags better, we created a historical analysis tool. To start an analysis we select the desired technology, choose from various weather models and set a minimum deviation threshold. The analysis is conducted rapidly, showcasing a graph of 4 different forecasts with the uncertainty windows, highlighted in green colour.